Hey all! It's "The Path" here to bring you an updated game plan with stats to bring the C's a win today at the Garden. I wanted to add & edit to my previous post after watching the Raptors play the Pelicans in an OT thriller in Toronto. The latter third of this post will mostly be copy/paste.
There are about 4 key offensive points and 3 4 important defensive tactics we have to employ. However, before we begin, I will make some comments on prior head-to-head stats, on last night's game against NOP, and also on the DeRozan situation.
JANUARY 20, 2017
BOS @ TOR
106 Points 114
47.1% Field Goal 47.1%
33.3% 3 Pointers 45.5%
85.0% Free Throws 81.5%
42 Rebounds 57
6 Off. Rebounds 17
7 Steals 9
21 Assists 17
3 Blocks 7
14 Turnovers 17
20 Fouls (Personal) 21
Player: Points Assists TREB OREB DREB FGM-A FG% 3PTM-A 3PT% FTM-A FT% Blocks StealsTO PF +/- MIN
Crowder 9 1 2 0 2 4-10 40.0% 1-5 20.0% 0-0 0% 0 1 2 1 -10 38:02
Green 14 0 5 0 5 6-12 50.0% 0-3 0% 2-2 100.0% 0 0 2 2 4 24:02
Horford 14 4 9 2 7 5-11 45.5% 2-4 50.0% 2-2 100.0% 0 1 3 1 -10 34:38
Smart 16 5 4 1 3 6-11 54.5% 1-2 50.0% 3-3 100.0% 1 4 3 4 -6 37:36
Thomas 27 7 1 0 1 8-19 42.1% 3-8 37.5% 8-9 88.9% 0 0 1 0 -14 36:32
Brown 2 0 1 0 1 1-3 33.3% 0-0 0% 0-0 0% 0 0 1 1 -6 7:40
Jerebko 7 1 2 0 2 2-3 66.7% 1-1 100.0% 2-2 100.0% 0 1 0 3 5 16:49
Johnson 4 1 5 2 3 2-5 40.0% 0-1 0% 0-0 0% 1 0 0 4 2 16:18
Olynyk 13 1 4 1 3 6-10 60.0% 1-2 50.0% 0-2 0% 1 0 2 4 -7 25:23
Rozier 0 1 0 0 0 0-1 0% 0-1 0% 0-0 0% 0 0 0 0 2 3:00
TOTAL 106 21 33 6 27 40-85 47.1% 9-27 33.3% 17-20 85.0% 3 7 14 20
Player: Points Assists TREB OREB DREB FGM-A FG% 3PTM-A 3PT% FTM-A FT% Blocks StealsTO PF +/- MIN
Carroll 11 2 4 1 3 4-10 40.0% 3-6 50.0% 0-0 0% 1 1 3 3 19 34:34
DeRozan 41 0 13 2 11 16-29 55.2% 1-2 50.0% 8-9 88.9% 0 2 1 1 19 37:54
Joseph 7 2 1 0 1 2-5 40.0% 1-2 50.0% 2-2 100.0% 0 0 0 3 6 23:45
Lowry 24 9 4 1 3 7-12 58.3% 5-6 83.3% 5-8 62.5% 1 2 4 3 7 42:14
Valanciunas 18 0 23 11 12 6-18 33.3% 0-0 0% 6-6 100.0% 2 0 3 4 17 27:45
Nogueira 7 2 3 2 1 3-4 75.0% 0-1 0% 1-2 50.0% 2 1 2 2 -1 21:28
Patterson 0 1 2 0 2 0-3 0% 0-2 0% 0-0 0% 1 0 1 4 -3 20:35
J. Poeltl 2 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0% 0-0 0% 0-0 0% 0 0 1 1 -8 6:28
Powell 2 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0% 0-0 0% 0-0 0% 0 0 1 0 -4 4:06
Ross 2 1 0 0 0 1-4 25.0% 0-3 0% 0-0 0% 0 3 1 0 -12 21:11
TOTAL 114 17 50 17 33 41-87 47.1% 10-22 45.5% 22-27 81.5% 7 9 17 21
What did we do well last game?
Honestly, I can't say we did well in any category except for our bench that put up big points while Crowder/IT were in a mid-game slump. Green & Smart came up clutch, each with 15+ points. Otherwise, we kept up the relative intensity in the paint and mid range, throwing up an equal number of FG attempts throughout the game. We are a shooting team; hence, we need to always aim to have higher FGA & 3PTA numbers compared to our opponents. The game was much closer than what the end score portrayed. We were down 3 with little time left on the clock and resorted to fouls that Toronto knocked back without batting an eye.
What did we do poorly? 4 categories:
•The first stat that screams off the paper is the 17 offensive rebounds (total 57) for the Raptors compared to our 6. Of the 17, 11 were from Valanciunas, 2 from DeRozan and Nogueira, and 1 a piece from Lowry and Carroll. JV effectively destroyed our defense, preventing the majority of the Celtics players from grabbing more than 3 defensive boards. The only players to grab more than 3 were Green (5) and Horford (7). JV also had a fair share of FG attempts, going 6-18 with the majority of the shots outside of the paint.
•The second stat is our 33.3% on 27 3 pt shooting attempts compared to Toronto's 45.5% on 22 attempts. I would argue that we were having a particularly bad shooting night with Crowder at a measly 9 pts in 38 min on 1-5 3 pt shooting and Gerald Green at 0-3 beyond the arc. Lowry was surprisingly timid within the arc, shooting 2-6. He was, however, on fire on 5-6 at the 3.
•The third stat to note is DeRozan's 11 defensive rebounds. Whenever he rebounded, he would push the ball up court at an extremely fast pace, often confusing the C's in their defensive assignments. We would fail to pick up Lowry or Carroll in transition leading to easy points for the Raptors.
•The fourth and final stat is our 3 blocks to the Raptors' 7. Horford/KO/Johnson/Jerebko did not guard the paint well against the two Toronto stars that have excellent finishing ability under the rim. For tomorrow, the C's will need to develop a game plan to either shrug off defenders for help or to force stops at the mid range with Horford/Jerebko and a wing defender rotation to the paint to cover. I believe Amir will be a key blocker in the paint and will explore his role fully later in the post.
In conclusion: This game was a wake up call to the Celtics. Never before had the C's been so utterly embarrassed by their clear shortcomings in the front court. Immediately after this game, the C's consistently put up high defensive rebound numbers that either matched or surpassed those of their opponents. Brad was quick to react, having at least 3 players crash the paint on opponent mid range and arc jumpers. In the recent game against the Rockets, we averaged 15 more total rebounds and twice the number of offensive boards (12). As long as we continue to crash the paint, we will translate well into tomorrow's game.
A summary of TOR vs. NOP.
I will be brief as I mention the game throughout this post. Lowry came up clutch as per usual with the game winning basket. Powell filled DeRozan's shoes very aptly, helping the Raptors pull back from the their 11 point deficit at the half. Carroll & Joseph looked a bit off from their usual selves. JV held AD to a 4-17 FG within the arc, forcing the Pelicans to rely on Holiday's 30 point showing. JV's disruptive ability combined with Raptor numbers in the paint effectively shut down the Pelicans' top tier center & front court offense. Overall, it was a disappointing showing for the Raptors who were having defensive woes, apparent especially in the first half. I expect the Raptors to try and carry JV's offensive prowess into today's game with the C's.
The DeRozan situation & the bigger picture for the Raptors.
DeMar DeRozan has had a right ankle contusion/bruise that saw him relegated to the bench in 3 of the Raptors' past 4 games. The lack of DeRozan yesterday in the NOP game showed heavily. The DeRozan-less Raps reminded me of teams who were reliant on one or at most two playmakers to generate over half the points. These teams are overly dependent on stellar performances out of their players with low usage on secondary and tertiary options, either due to injury or a shallow roster. They have unneccessarily dropped games curried highly in their favor. Example squads that come to mind are the following teams this season:
Love-less Cavaliers that are too reliant on James & Irving. They've gone 4-6 in their last 10 games with one of the worst benches in the league. An absolutely disgraceful showing for the reigning champions despite LeBron's high minutes. Irving seems to be somewhat streaky, dropping anywhere between 15 points a game to 42. Love is the Cav's only official PF, indicating a significant lack of depth in the Cavs roster (not to mention he often flexes to center in the starting 5). There has been a lot of questions as to why Lue doesn't lower LBJ's min, increase Jefferson's/Jones', and purposefully sacrifice first seed. In doing so, he offers quality minutes for the novice Jones and also prolongs LeBron's career. At this rate, it would not be out of the question to see any of the top 4 Eastern teams overtake Cleveland.
Recent SAS. LMA & Mills have been subpar, forcing Leonard to put up 30+ pt nights consistently in order to secure a win. SAS has been suffering from its somewhat shallow bench as many of its players are past their prime. 9-6 in their last 15 games, notably dropping games to sub .500 teams like the Suns, Mavs, Bucks, & Pelicans.
Chicago Bulls with Butler. He has been carrying the team on his back without the assistance of Wade or another secondary ball handler. The Bulls suffer without a big 30-35+ pt night from Butler. On another note, we will probably see him traded as Chicago may possibly look to tank.
NYK. What is there to say? Arguably the most hyped team of the preseason, the Knicks have looked like the most inconsistent team in recent NBA memory. Melo struggles to rally support from fans and teammates despite his forced high iso usage & regular 20pt+ nights. KP has been retroactively stripped of his unicorn status and Rose is injured... again. Lee, Jennings, KOP, & Kuzminskas have tried to hold the line with the 2nd unit to little success.
Washington Wizards. Despite having the 2nd strongest showing in January (Warriors are first at 12-2), the team revolves too highly around Wall's play making ability. Even with other players like Beal, we all know the Wizards will drop to 8th seed or below if Wall experiences an injury. Wizards simply do not have a tertiary option as their bench is the most shallow in the league. Luckily, the secondary Beal has been a bright star in the Wizards 5 man squad. This team will suffer the most in any playoff series that go past Game 4.
Houston Rockets. With Harden on the bench, the Rockets plummet in their ORTG. Beverly has not stepped up adequately as the Rockets offense looks sluggish without the Beard's court vision. Gordon & Capela look inconsistent night to night. The only stellar secondary option for the Rockets has been Sam Dekker, who is seeing increasing minutes since the start of the new year.
OKC. Pretty self explanatory. With the highest usage numbers and some of the lowest efficiency stats, Westbrook leads his team in a pathetic attempt to remain in top 7 contention in the West. I'm actually very surprised Westbrook has not experienced an injury yet this season. All fans can do is cross their fingers in hopes he does not come down hard on an ill-advised high jump.
Why am I mentioning these teams? Each of these elite teams (except the Knicks and Bulls) have had a fatal flaw that shows its ugly face in carefree games against some of the lowest seeded teams. Toronto is no different, going 4-6 in their last 10 games with losses to the Magic, the Bulls, and the Phoenix Suns (TWICE!). We have to call into question the ability for the Raptors to remain consistent with a player injured. Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the C's have seen 2 games with limited minutes for AB in the last 14 games; yet, we somehow remain in top seed contention despite a tough loss to the Wizards and Blazers.
With secondary options in Jerebko/KO/Smart and tertiary playmakers of Green/Rozier/Jaylen, Brad can afford to play hard on both ends of the court without risking upsets or fatigue.
This will be crucial in tonight's game. Lowry played 45 min in a game that challenged the Raptors until the very last play. Powell also played 40 minutes despite his relative inexperience on the court (he was lucky to see more than 5 minutes a game last season). As the entire Raptors lineup will be tired, Brad & the C's need to step up offensively in the first three quarters to ensure the win. Brad should incorporate high usage in minutes for Rozier as his full court press will wear down Lowry/Powell for a potential steal or bad pass.
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OK. Wow! That was a long breakdown of the previous game against the Raptors and their face off against the Pelicans last night. Time to move into offensive and defensive strategies with comments from the NOP game. Most remain unchanged from my previous post except for an addition in the latter category.
I will assume AB will not play as the media has been ambiguous on the matter. Without further ado, the promised run down!
So, starting with the offense, I've observed that the Raptors (lower 10th in DRTG in league) have some glaring problems. Most notably, their perimeter closeout is atrocious. Their ability to react to quick paint plays generated by 5-10 ft passes also remains lackluster. Building off these two weaknesses, I present to you my first point.
Generate kick-out or wide open 3s.
This can be accomplished easily with IT's gravity during paint drives. Smart and Rozier will also be able to generate the kick out wide open 3. It would be preferable to take it from the baseline as the Raptors centers lack the speed to close out adequately. If the ball is kicked in the upper arc, more elite defenders can close out, pressuring the shot. We should try to keep Horford & KO in a rebounding position to go for the 2nd wind points. Both are great at the 3; however, like I mentioned, they will probably be at the upper arc where the Raptors are comfortable defending. Perhaps a interchanging PnR vs baseline spot up 3 between Horford & KO will work. While one PnRs, the other will commit to the baseline.
Drive to the paint with frequent PnRs with fast roll men.
In the loss to the Hornets, the Raptors defense quite literally fell asleep on PnRs with Kemba & a fast roll man. The Raptors paint defense lacks nearly as much as the perimeter D. Having IT roll with KO, Jerebko, & Jaylen would work well as these 3 roll men are quick with their footwork and can finish well on the layup. KO has especially shown prowess with the quick roll to the basket. He often finishes well off the pass from IT. With Smart at the helm, Horford, Amir Johnson, & KO can be great options. Albeit slower, Horford will be able to generate attention and kick the ball out for a 3. Amir has proven his worth lately with tricky under-the-rim shots, length, and longer air time. Even adding another man like Crowder or Jaylen in the paint separate from the PnR will generate good inside passes. Essentially, crowding the paint at a fast pace will serve us well.
Post up Horford/KO on Valanciunas & Nogueira.
Horford will get many good looks on the board with iso play layups. He has been more consistent as of late, finishing well in the paint. However, this strategy may be ill-advised on the bruiser JV as Horford looked to still be suffering from his groin injury in the game against the Pistons. Brad will need to be quick in changing gears if this option dies out. Anyway, both these Raptors centers are not fast and can thus fall to Horford's edging quick spot up floater or layup. This match up will also force the Raptors to shrug a man off the lefty perimeter. IT should be at the right side of the arc as much as possible when these iso plays are conducted to look for the kick out wide open 3. Crowder, Rozier, & Smart will also be other options to have at this position as they all fare well in the corner & diagonal 3s.
Use AB sparingly while Increasing minutes for Jonas Jerebko, Gerald Green, & Jaylen Brown.
I suggest we use AB for the first 6 minutes of the 1st. Have him re-enter at the 4th quarter for his quality perimeter defense and rebounding when Lowry/DeRozan tend to heat up. We need to be careful about tiring AB out, as using other muscles instead of your Achilles will merely lead to more injuries. edit: AB probably will not play. Jerebko will probably see great minutes tonight after his showing with the Pistons. He proved to be reserved enough on offense to only take open 3 shots (1 against Detroit) and has shown incredible prowess on the defensive glass. Gerald will serve as a great spot up 3 shooter to replace Crowder/KO. He is pretty consistent and rare to turn it over. His recent showing has proven him to be an adequate 2nd string shooter. Jaylen Brown will prove valuable if he can put up 10-15 points. His hype value for the team is 2nd only to IT. Although we haven't seen many roll instances involving Brown, he can get easy free throws and layups against this Raptor team with his high intensity drives. He has also been consistent making clutch 3s. We should not be afraid to rely on Jaylen in end-of-quarter scenarios if IT is not available. I would have Jaylen primarily guard Carroll, Ross, or, if necessary, Powell. Jaylen has shown he can stick with opponents who drive hard to the paint with occasional blocks.
As a final offensive note, I think Smart is tough enough to play large minutes for both the 1st and 2nd string. As soon as IT subs out, Smart/Brown should be the 1st replacement option. Having Smart at 35+ minutes will immensely help the team on both ends of the court. Brad should look to sub Smart in early for IT so that Lowry/Powell will be worn down by the 4th quarter.
Now for the defensive points. Our defensive intensity has notably increased in efficiency over the last 3 games. In order to translate it to this game, the C's will have to keep in mind 4 major points and 2 minor points.
The DeRozan iso.
Now, the Powell paint drive. Suffocate him under the rim.
Powell had an incredible showing last night. Despite being somewhat cold in the first half, he lit up in the 4th with great consecutive finishes in the paint. I suspect he will serve to be the first PG option if Lowry subs out. Otherwise, Lowry will fill DeRozan's shooting guard roles while maintaining his high assist numbers (He had 10 last night). We will have to ensure we have Crowder, Smart, or Jerebko interchangeably guard Lowry/Powell. Jaylen will also be able to guard Powell with his sticking potential. Powell has rarely seen 15+ min with DeRozan healthy. Usually sitting around 6-10 min, I expect Dwayne Casey to play him for 35+ min today. Powell will drive hard to the basket with tricky extended arm layups and sneaky cross rim dunks or kisses off the glass. He is weakest when trying to finish at the paint under suffocating defensive pressure due to his general lack of experience and minutes. We should aim to crowd the paint when Powell takes to the glass. Tire him out with glue defenders so that he loses the spring in his step by the 4th quarter. I suspect Jaylen will come up with a big block on Powell tonight.
The Lowry PnR
Lowry utilizes the PnR the most on his team. With excellent handling and court vision, he arguably poses more of a threat than DeRozan. To counteract the seemingly inevitable Lowry show, Jae Crowder will need to step up defensively as he did against James Harden (6-18 FG) a few days back. He will have to go over the top of the screen to contest Lowry's reliable off the dribble 3. If Jaebae fails to close out, the roll defender will need to step up immediately even at the risk of allowing an open drive for the roll man. The Raptors do not fare well in tight-spaced paint plays and passes. Horford will be a great anchor for these instances. Smart is the only other viable option for defending against Lowry. The team NEEDS to realize and execute this matchup. Jae should also refrain from his recent increase in lateral drives to the paint. Although phenomenal, he will need to play increased minutes to compensate for Lowry. Chuck up 3s with relative ease & low consumption of energy.
Crashing the paint.
Without dominant offensive rebounders (except JV on his last match against the C's), Toronto will lose a lot of second chance points with our recent rebounding attitude. We rebounded nearly twice the amount as the Rockets. Brad has employed a very noticeable change as we constantly have 3 or 4 players crash the paint after a shot. I believe we should do this selectively, always keeping a defender within 5 ft of Lowry. Boxing out JV with Jerebko/Horford will be extremely tricky but necessary to prevent the front court massacre he single handedly committed last game.
Additional Point: Increased minutes for Amir Johnson.
I believe we will be seeing more minutes out of Amir with his length and smart, non-fouling defense. Amir, unlike Horford & Jerebko, will be able to offer blocks on Powell. I do not expect him to start; however, I wouldn't be surprised if he remained in the game for the last minutes of the 4th. If he comes up big, we will be able to run the floor in transition offense, further exhausting the Raptors players. Expected min: 25+.
Minor defensive notes:
1) Jaylen cannot afford to switch onto Lowry. He will be creamed as Lowry does not leave room to be blocked.
2) IT will be bogged down. It's inevitable. He has shown more intensity; however, we will need to be quick covering him. If unavoidable, force Lowry baseline left with a mid range jumper where he is most uncomfortable.
Overall, I expect this game to be the best head-to-head for both teams so far this season. We will come out scoring hard in the 1st. Brad has to be careful about his rotations in the 3rd as we have historically given up 10 pt+ leads (cough bucks cough). A great offensive showing for Lowry will be unavoidable in the 4th. The King of the 4th will have to equally match in order to suppress the intensity of the Raptors. Shutting down Powell & JV on the defensive glass will likely decide the game as the Raptors will struggle to put up points via other perimeter shooters. I hope Brad emphasizes this point with the Celtics tonight.
Cheers! I hope you enjoyed this summary. Happy Wednesday! I will unfortunately not be able to join in live as I have 2 hours of consecutive physical and occupational therapy. Regardless, I will be rooting hard for the C's. Take my energy r/bostonceltics!
goCs
I expect to post another post game analysis with advanced stats as long as I can find the full game replay.
You can find my post game breakdown on how we fared against the Pistons two days ago here.
Submitted February 01, 2017 at 06:03AM by Noanswer_merelyapath