Here's a quick post exploring how much Tim Hardaway Jr. might be worth in the off-season, and what it would take to keep him.
Forwards that averaged at least 15 points a game in the 2015-2016 season, and the contracts they received last off-season:
| Player | Team | PPG | Contract | Yearly Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Anderson | Houston | 17 | 4~Yr/$80M | 20M |
| Evan Fournier | Orlando | 15.4 | 5~Yr/$85M | 17M |
| Nicolas Batum | Charlotte | 14.9 | 5~Yr/$120M | 24M |
| JR Smith | Cleveland | 12.4 | 4~Yr/$57M | 14M |
| Mirza Teletovic | Milwaukee | 12.2 | 3~Yr/$31.5M | 10.5M |
| Joe Johnson | Utah | 12.2 | 2~Yr/$22M | 11M |
I may have missed a few players, but I think this gives the general idea of what I'm trying to say. Tim Hardaway Jr. is currently averaging 13.5/2/2 on 25 minutes a game on basically average shooting (45% FG and 35% from 3). In addition, he's known as a poor defender across the league. If free agency were tomorrow, THJ would probably net around $12M a year.
Here's the problem. THJ is a better player than his stats suggest, and we as Hawks fans know that, and soon enough the whole league's going to know. Tim has stepped up his defense to the point that other teams' GMs may not consider him a defensive liability. Tim is clutch, and he's shown that on national television.
The worst part is, in the last 9 games, while Thabo's been out and THJ has started, he's averaged 19.4/4.3/3.7. and been our best player by a good margin. If Timmy continues to ball out for the rest of the season and into the playoffs, he's going to get even more attention.
Could Tim get Batum's contract this off-season? Let's look at the numbers. Tim's current season vs. the contract seasons for a few of his fellow guard-forwards.
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | GS | MP | FG | FG% | 3P | 3P% | eFG% | FT | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Batum | 2015-16 | 27 | 70 | 70 | 35.0 | 5.3 | .426 | 2.0 | .348 | .506 | 2.3 | .849 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 14.9 |
| 2 | Evan Fournier | 2015-16 | 23 | 79 | 71 | 32.5 | 5.4 | .462 | 2.0 | .400 | .546 | 2.5 | .836 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 15.4 |
| 3 | Tim Hardaway | 2016-17 | 24 | 54 | 15 | 25.1 | 4.8 | .446 | 1.8 | .349 | .528 | 1.7 | .720 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 13.1 |
| 4 | Joe Johnson | 2015-16 | 34 | 81 | 81 | 33.4 | 4.7 | .439 | 1.5 | .383 | .509 | 1.5 | .831 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 12.2 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 2/21/2017.
Advanced Stats:
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | MP | PER | TS% | AST% | TOV% | USG% | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 | OBPM | DBPM | BPM | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Batum | 2015-16 | 27 | 70 | 2448 | 15.6 | .546 | 26.9 | 17.6 | 21.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | .097 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | Evan Fournier | 2015-16 | 23 | 79 | 2566 | 14.6 | .587 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 20.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 5.7 | .106 | 2.1 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 3 | Tim Hardaway | 2016-17 | 24 | 54 | 1354 | 14.7 | .553 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 22.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 | .093 | 0.8 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | Joe Johnson | 2015-16 | 34 | 81 | 2703 | 12.0 | .538 | 18.0 | 14.7 | 17.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 2.7 | .048 | 0.3 | -1.6 | -1.3 | 0.4 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 2/21/2017.
THJ is clearly not the defensive player that Batum was in 2015-2016, so he probably won't get Batum money. But even if Tim were to play at a 13/4/3 level for the rest of the season and into the playoffs, he's still just about on part with Evan Fournier, who's making $17 Million a year.
$17 Million a year.
If we signed Millsap to the max, we'll be paying him $33 Million a year. Even if we signed Paul using his bird rights, signing THJ alone would put us at $76M for total payroll, leaving us $18M of space to work with before we go over the cap with Paul's contract.
In other words, we can sign both of them back. But if we do, it's going to be very expensive, in both dollars and opportunity cost for the future.
I love both of them, and I hope both THJ and Millsap get paid, but it's hard to say whether it's best for our future that they get paid by us.
TL;DR: TIM IS NEVER GOOGLE. TIM WILL GET PAID BIG BUCKS
Submitted February 21, 2017 at 08:44PM by Sinekure