Saturday, February 4, 2017

IT's First Half Sets Stage for Assault on Celtics All-Time Records Book

We're just over the half-way mark on the NBA season, and with IT on such a ridiculous two-month roll, I wanted to check in to see where his projected performance stands in terms of Celtics all-time records.

TLDR version: IT is on pace to put his name all over the Celtics records book.

Take a gander:

Record: Most Points in a Season

John Havlicek - 2,338 in 1970-71

IT's projected - 2,332

This is, obviously, the big one. 50 games into the 82 game season, IT is projected to have a legitimate shot at scoring the most points in a single season by any Celtic.

Ever.

Holy shit.

And I think he'll do it. Here's why: IT currently sits at 1,375 points. There are 32 games left in the regular season. If IT averages his current 29.9 PPG the rest of the way, that will give him 956.8 more points to add to his total (29.9 * 32 = 956.8 + 1,375 = 2,332).

Imagine, if you will, our 5'9" dynamo seeing the record within his grasp with four games remaining in the season. He's at 2,212 points, just 127 points away from the all-time record. He needs to average 32 a game to clinch it.

I'd be willing to bet my mortgage he doesn't just get there, but winds up averaging 40 a game to etch his name emphatically in the records book.

Here's another reason to believe IT will get there, even without having to make a last-week push -- he's getting better and better as the season progresses:

IT PPG per month

  • Oct - 24.7
  • Nov - 26.3
  • Dec - 30.3
  • Jan - 32.9
  • Feb - 41 (2 games)

Obviously a long way to go and anything can happen (knocking furiously on wood), but there's a clear pattern here of IT gaining and building momentum as the season chugs along. Much like he gets better in the 4th (49% FG, 43% 3P, .574eFG% - all well above his season averages this year), the Little Guy is only getting better as we move into the later stages of the season. And this is nothing new. IT had his best month of his then career best 15-16 season in March when he averaged 25.9 PPG on .599 TS%.

Bottom line: I firmly believe IT will break Havlicek's 40-plus year old scoring record this year.

And if IT does continue at his current pace, he'll likely also bump a few other notable Celtics out of their record-holder top-spots:

Record: Highest PPG Average in a Season

Larry Bird - 29.9 in 1987-88

IT's projected - 30.5

This projection assumes a great deal and I invite anyone with maths knowledge > lousy to add their $.02. But in my estimation, 30.5 PPG is a fairly safe projection. In his 25 games since returning from injury on Dec 16, IT has averaged 33.16 PPG. That's a good sample size, and I don't think it's a stretch to use it going forward. I did, and that's how I arrived at the 30.5 PPG projection. Again, please feel free to provide a more educated projection on this one.

So it appears IT has a very good chance at taking Havlicek's spot for single-season scoring AND Bird's for PPG. What else is he on pace to challenge?

Record: Most 3P Made in a Season

Antoine Walker - 222 in 2001-2001

IT's projected - 241

Big note here: 'Toine attempted 645 3s in 01-02, also a Celtics record. So IT is on pace to shatter 'Toine's record for 3PM, and do it with just 457 3PA. That's 188 fewer 3s attempted to break the Celtics record for 3s made in a season. Pretty incredible. ('Toine shot 34% from deep in 01-02. IT is on pace to shoot it right around 40%.)

Last, IT also has an outside shot at Paul Pierce's FTM record.

Record: Free Throws Made in a Season

Paul Pierce - 627 in 2005-06

IT's projected - 594

There you have it. We have 32 games left in the regular season. By the end of it, we could be looking back and recognizing Isaiah Thomas, arguably, had the very best offensive season in the history of the Boston Celtics.



Submitted February 04, 2017 at 11:30AM by ShootZeeGlass

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