Isaiah Thomas is going nuts.
The scoring streak IT is on is not unprecedented, but it is still incredible (hilariously on the broadcast on Saturday, Mike openly wondered what the NBA record was for consecutive 20 point games... Wilt had the two longest streaks with 126 and 93).
Last season, Isaiah scored almost entirely at the rim and beyond the arc (and, of course, at the line). This is the "moreyball" efficiency algorithm, essentially, that most teams now want their players modeling their shot selection after.
The problem for Thomas is that even as someone who is an excellent finisher around the rim and can drop buckets from outside, teams (i.e., the Hawks) figured out how to stop Thomas from scoring efficiently by walling off the paint and baiting him into questionable 3 point shots in an effort to force scoring that often wasn't there.
This year, a couple of things have happened for the Celtics to help Isaiah Thomas:
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the 3-point shooting of his teammates has drastically improved. The Celtics are shooting 36.8 from 3 as opposed to 33.0
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Al Horford's versatility provides Isaiah Thomas with a dangerous weapon and they have proven to be very good at playing off each other.
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Jae Crowder is flirting with a 50-40-90 season that means teams can't sag off of him like they did last year.
I can't deny that these things have been a huge part of Thomas' uptick in scoring and efficiency, which is almost unheard of. There is a very good reason he's leading the league in OBPM and is third in ORPM (behind Harden and Westbrook. While ESPN won't release how exactly RPM is calculated, I think it's pretty safe to assume that the extra assists and rebounds put those two over Thomas).
Thomas talked a big game in the offseason about improving his shooting off the dribble. Here is what Isaiah said to Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy in September:
"I've been working on extending my range," Thomas said. "I'm doing a lot of off-the-dribble threes just because that's something I shot a lower percentage on and that's something that I do a lot, where I got the ball in my hands and I'm dribbling and I need to be able to shoot better off of the dribble. I'm pretty good at catch-and-shoot and spot-ups and stuff like that. My main focus this year was extending my range, getting a quicker release on my jump shot and being able to pull-up from anywhere. When the defense has their hands down, I want to be shot-ready at all times. That was my main focus and then also just getting better at everything else. Getting better with my right hand, whether that's finishing around the rim - different types of finishes - or right-hand passes off of the pick-and-roll. I just tried to continue to get better and also to continue to work on my one-legged shot. I pulled that out a lot of more and improved it. I'm supposed to be having a conversation with Steve Nash in a few days and just pick his brain about his one-foot shots that he used to do when he played."
This was not all talk. While his percentage of assisted 3-pointers is down only from 64.7 to 62.8, not a marked difference, the most noticeable improvement has instead come in the area in between the arc and the paint. There was no better example this season than his game winner against Atlanta two weeks ago:
Thomas hasn't just worked on quickening his release, he's improved his footwork in the midrange immensely. Because of his small frame, he has an elite ability to stop on a dime and take those easy shots. Just like in the Atlanta clip above, his biggest strength is that deceleration; opponents know he does most of his damage at the rim so they are worried about stopping him there. Most of the time they cannot even recover to contest it.
For most of us Celtics fans, this harks back to the glory days of Paul Pierce. Pierce's end-of-game move was a half-spin hesitation dribble followed by a pull-up from around the top of the paint. The ability to create space (and use his height to shoot over defenders) was crucial in his ability to efficiently generate buckets in one-on-one scenarios.
One interesting facet: he's actually shooting slightly less shots in the midrange than he did last year. In 2015-16, 32.3 percent of his shots came from the areas between 3 feet from the rim and the top of the arc, per basketball-reference. In 2016-17, that number has fallen slightly to 26.4 percent. However, his FG% on those shots has increased markedly. To break it down:
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2-pointer FG% overall 2015-16/2016-17: 46.2/52.2
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FG% 0-3 feet: 58.1/58 (virtually no change)
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FG% 3-10 feet: 28.9/35.2
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FG% 10-16 feet: 38.2/53.6
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FG% 16-3pt Arc: 36.2/52.6
Despite the small decrease in frequency, the jump in efficiency is enormous. Because Thomas attacks the rim with such ferocity and has been taking 40.7 percent of his shots from 3 (up from 33.6 percent in 2015-16), the mid range has been an area where open shots are easy to come by. His additional ability to create them has helped making him a scoring threat from anywhere, and far harder to defend.
Thomas is currently 4th in the league in usage percentage, yet he has a higher eFG% than any of the players in the top 10 of usage except Kawhi Leonard (who he is tied with at 54.7 percent). Thomas has career highs nearly across the board: usage, ppg, eFG%, 3P%, FG%, FTr, FT%, FTA, 3PA, 2PA, and apg.
Here is the list for players that have a usage rate over 30, an eFG% over 50, and scored 29+ PPG
Isaiah is 8th on that list in eFG%, behind the NBA's first unanimous MVP (2015-16) Steph Curry, Shaq and Karl Malone (who are paint oriented big men), 2013-14 MVP Kevin Durant, 87-88 Larry Legend, and 89-90 MJ.
This is a historic season, and while all the people blubbering about his defense have a point, it also needs to be recognized that a 5'9" point guard who was drafted 60th is currently the most efficient volume scorer in the NBA. The Little Guy rules.
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Submitted February 02, 2017 at 11:11AM by swarbles