As we begin to get into the 2016-2017 season, questions are swirling about the ways this Celtics team (so far) is different from what we expected it would be. Plenty to debate, but one of the things that has intrigued me the most is the question of what kind of player Tyler Zeller truly is. It’s hard to remember now that getting him was a notable steal in the 2014-2015 season before Jae emerged and the IT trade went down. Going into 2015-2016, there was talk of trying to extend his contract, but a lot of folks thought he would be getting something in the $12 million per year range (and might have projected even higher, if we’d foreseen the hyper-inflation that ended up happening this past summer). Those projections were based on his play and potential. Then last season happened and his play went south, free agency ticked by without another team signing him, and Zeller became this past summer’s Jonas Jerebko/Chris Babb - contracted to be a potential trade chip as much as a basketball player. The sub has some vocal proponents of the Zeller-as-bust theory, along with a smattering of Zeller enthusiasts. I’ve done a few Hope or Hype? posts before (here and here), so I thought I’d dust off the format and put together the case for each side. Since I’m actually a fan of Tyler Zeller, I’m going to go pretty strong on the Just Hype side in the interest of balance, though I will end up trying to contradict some of those points in the Have Hope section.
Note: I pull most of my stats from basketball-reference.com and nba.com/stats
Just Hype
“A 7-foot tower of Charmin.” For those who prefer the eye test to statistical regressions, the word soft may be one of the first things to come to mind when you think of Tyler Zeller. An amorphous term that seems to encompass a wide range of defensive shortcomings, inability to score close to the basket, and general attitude, soft doesn’t lend itself to analysis as much as embarrassing highlights on youtube. While cherry-picking clips can be a double-edged sword (ahem), there is still a fairly widespread sense of plushness that doesn’t bode well for his future career.
But I’m not big on eye-testing, so let’s not stop at general impressions. Digging deeper, there are some tangible aspects of Zeller’s game that should make us concerned. Part of why he’s been called soft is his lack of rim protection and generally less stout defensive presence. His lack of rebounding is especially noticeable on a team that desperately needs someone tall who can reach those basketballs that are on the high shelf. And even his offensive game, which should be his strength, has its limitations. Let’s get into all this in more detail.
“Defensively-challenged.” In fairness, the number of solid rim protectors in the NBA right now is pretty low. If there were lots of them, Roy Hibbert wouldn’t keep getting new contracts. But even with a fairly low bar, Zeller’s block percentage (he blocked 2.4% of the shots taken while he was on the floor) landed him in the bottom third of centers last year, and he is consistently low by that measure:
| Year | Block% |
|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 2.8 |
| 2013-14 | 3.0 |
| 2014-15 | 2.3 |
| 2015-16 | 2.4 |
In past seasons, he’s been putting up Block% numbers that are half or one-third what actual rim protectors consistently manage. And those rim protectors get fewer chances to block shots than Zeller, since players actually try to avoid them around the rim.
But some guys provide solid defense without getting a lot of blocks; the recent game-winning smackdown notwithstanding, Al Horford can be said to fall in this category. So is that what’s happening with Zeller? Defense is generally harder to capture with stats, but they don’t paint a great picture for him. While Al Horford’s block percentage isn’t elite, his Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) is consistently in the top third among centers. Zeller? Not so much. He’s ranked in the bottom third every year, and last season’s train wreck saw him in the bottom ten among centers.
| Year | Zeller DBPM | Median (for centers) |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | -2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2013-14 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 2014-15 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 2015-16 | -1.1 | 1.3 |
“Lean Mound of Rebound?” So if he’s not blocking shots, and he’s not a good defender, he’s at least parking under the basket and hauling in crazy amounts of rebounds, right? Right?
Wrong. I won’t throw out another table, but suffice it to say his Rebounding% is pretty similar to the DBPM stats: bottom third or just above it among centers year-in, year-out. Ugh.
“Stretchy like a rock.” At this point, it sounds like we’ve been describing the limitations of a stretch-5. Kelly Olynyk plays that role for the Celtics and is generally not a great rebounder, has been criticized (somewhat unfairly) for his defense, and isn’t about to block much with his T-rex arms. So have I been misspelling it the whole time and it’s actually Tyll3r Z3ll3r? Well, he attempted one cross-court heave and three 3-pointers in the 2012-2013 season, one heave in the 2013-2014 season, and nothing beyond the arc since then. So five shots total in his career, of which he made zero. With a lifetime 3-point percentage of zero, I think we can safely rule out stretch-5.
I may not like the term soft, or rely on the eye-test, but when you dig down on the stats, I think it’s clear that the appropriate way to describe claims that Tyler Zeller is good at basketball is Just Hype.
Have Hope
Whew, that was a lot of negativity. Again, I’m actually a fan of Tyler Zeller, so here’s where I try to show how a bunch of the Just Hype arguments are just hate.
Let’s start with defense. Above, I used the word train wreck to describe last season for Tyler Zeller. But when it comes to his defense, that’s hyperbole. I’m not saying he’s a great defender, but if you look at more stats than just DBPM, the picture looks a bit better.
For example, Defensive Win-Shares puts him average or a bit below among centers for his career. In his best year (2014-2015), he almost cracked the top third of his position, ranking 35th out of 85 centers. It’s worth noting that with 30 teams (and usually 85-90 centers total league-wide) making the top third in a weaker skill is a big deal.
| Year | Zeller DWS | Median (for centers) |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 2013-14 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 2014-15 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 2015-16 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
And when you compare the team’s rating with Zeller on the floor versus off, it seems the Celtics have done just as well defensively, going from giving up 1.046 points per possession (PPP, also known as Defensive Rating) when Zeller sat over the past two seasons versus giving up 1.048 PPP when he played. Now, I’m not trying to scoff at .002 points per possession, after all that probably translates to giving up an extra point every, what, 10 games or so? But it’s not enough to merit the hate in the Just Hype section.
On a similar note, rebounding isn’t as clear cut as it might seem from the discussion above. I’m not going to defend Zeller’s rebounding numbers; let’s be honest, they’re not great. But when you compare the team’s rebounding percentage when he sat versus when he played over the past two years, the Celtics have actually been a tiny bit better with the big man boxing out opposing players, rather than holding back crazed Bae Crowder fans who scored seats right behind the bench.
| On/Off, 2014-2016 | Opp PPP | Team Reb% |
|---|---|---|
| Zeller Off | 1.046 | 49.2% |
| Zeller On | 1.048 | 49.7% |
What about stretching the floor, though? While a player can help his team rebound better without getting credit for it, and while stats can have trouble accurately measuring individual defense, shooting is much easier to quantify. You shoot the ball from a spot on the floor and it goes through the hoop or it doesn’t. And when Zeller shoots from beyond the arc, it doesn’t.
But that doesn’t mean he can’t help with spacing. Because his midrange game is actually good. And in his best year, it was really good. So good, in fact, that I’m going to stop calling them midrange shots and start calling them cash register shots, because when Zeller’s 15-24 feet from the hoop, everything he takes is money.
| Year | 15-19ft | 20-24ft |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 38.2% | 30.6% |
| 2013-14 | 51.1% | 40.0% |
| 2014-15 | 46.2% | 75% |
| 2015-16 | 34.3% | 57.1% |
His rookie year he wasn’t as solid a shooter, but his numbers jump from there. Even last year, when it seemed like all his stats crashed and burned, he still hit some deep cash register shots. And when it comes to spacing, it’s not necessarily the shots you take that matter, just that the defenders have to play relatively close to you. I don’t want to oversell things here, though. Zeller’s bread-and-butter is shots at the rim; that’s where he took more than half his attempts every year but his rookie season. But the big man can shoot a little, and not just on the pick-and-roll. That’s why he was top-20 and top-25 in his second and third seasons, respectively, in True Shooting % among centers (and centers tend to be among the tops in the league in that category).
It’s worth noting that Zeller’s worst offensive showing was last year, and it brings up the question: why did his numbers drop so much? One reason might be a precipitous drop in layup attempts as a percentage of his shots. In 2013-2014, 29% of the shots he took were layups. In 2014-2015, 27.5% were. But in 2015-2016, the number drops to 15%. It’s important to note that these aren’t shooting percentages; he still hit his layups at a high rate. It’s just that he attempted a lot fewer of them. He also saw a ten percentage point increase in the portion of his shots that were jump shots. And where did all those new jump shots happen last year? Well, at the cash register. Specifically 15-19 feet from the hoop. Only if you check the table above, you can see that in 2015-2016, someone forgot to refill the 15-19ft drawer with new bills, and he was left with nothing but loose change. I suspect, given some articles about it , that Zeller was working on “improving” his jump shot last year, possibly because the team had Jared Sullinger and (ugh) David Lee who needed room around the hoop on offense. But the rest of his game remained solid. I am confident that what can be “fixed” can be unfixed, and his cash register shots can return to form. Also, just give the man the damn ball near the hoop!
Enough debunking the negatives about Tyler Zeller’s game, what about some of the positives? As you may have picked up from above, he’s a pretty good offensive center. To avoid table fatigue, I’ll just say he generally ranks well among centers for Offensive Win Shares (OWS), and even made top ten in his peak year 2014-2015 (Offensive Box Plus-Minus (OBPM) generally ranks him similarly, though slightly lower). The exception was last season, when he dropped down to the bottom half of centers, as explained with my tortured cash register metaphor above. He’s very good around the hoop and plays a mean pick-and-roll game, especially when he can hit some mid-range shots to keep defenses guessing.
He also takes care of the ball. I know the eye-testers will be rolling their testing equipment at that one, but the numbers are there. He’s always been in the top half of centers by turnover percentage, and the last two years he’s been even better; in his peak 2014-2015 year he was top ten. For what it’s worth, he’s top ten again so far this year, though on a smaller sample size. That’s part of why he’s been a positive contributer by Player Efficiency Rating (PER, league average is 15) every year since his rookie season, including last year. As a side note, eye-test advocates may want to be wary of confirmation bias – you can reset your expectations with this sweet highlight video, if needed.
| Year | PER |
|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 11.0 |
| 2013-14 | 15.4 |
| 2014-15 | 18.9 |
| 2015-16 | 15.4 |
On the more qualitative side, Zeller is known for being fast and racing up and down the court. He seems like a perfect fit for an IT or Terry Rozier point guard who can fly on fast breaks, but might want a trailing big man who can keep up for rebounds or to pass to. For all his defensive mediocrity, he’s still a 250+lb 7-footer who can, and does, bang down low with some of the best big men in the league when his number gets called.
On a personal note, I actually ran into Tyler randomly and got a chance to chat with him briefly. He came across as a really down-to-earth guy and sincerely nice. Some folks will take that as an opportunity to say Zeller is “soft” or isn’t mean or tough enough. It’s true he doesn’t have the meanness of Draymond Green’s knee or the toughness of Russell Westbrooks’s head. But if there’s any literal truth to the phrase “kill them with kindness”, Zeller might be Javier freaking Bardem (I was going to link to the youtube from No Country for Old Men, The Deputy here, but it’s pretty graphic…just imagine something super intense and violent, then flip it to super-intense kindness to represent Tyler Zeller). And while having a mean streak on the court can be an asset at times, I suspect having a teammate who is a genuinely nice guy like Zeller gives a boost to team cohesiveness and locker room camaraderie.
Overall, it remains to be seen if last year was an accurate representation of who he will generally be as a player, or if it was a down year in an otherwise promising young career. Tyler Zeller is not an all-star player, but he’s also not as bad as some people think. If he can get his midrange jumper back to form, and tap back into his best defensive and rebounding skills, he may start to look like a borderline starter, as he did in 2014-2015. At this point, his contract (two years, second year unguaranteed) still feels more like a trade piece than a sign the team has long-term plans for him. But if he’s playing for another team, I’m sure I’ll still be rooting for him (whenever they’re not playing the Celtics). And in the meantime, he’s still got a decent chance to get back to where he was the season before last, which is why I still Have Hope.
TL;DRTyler Zeller was not very good last year. And he’s bad at individual rebounding. But he was good before that, and maybe his defense isn’t as bad as it seems. Mostly he needs to get his jump shot back to how it was before last year and get more layup attempts again.
Submitted November 22, 2016 at 03:20PM by BogansRansom