So for the past few days, when I get a minute, I've been doing some data entry on a spreadsheet in my Google Docs. This project started because of a hypothesis I had while looking over the various Celtics Basketball reference stats. The hypothesis was, quite simply, "I think Amir Johnson might be one of the best free agent signings of the last offseaon". So I pulled the contract, win share, VORP, BPM, and RPM data for every player who was on an NBA team at the end of the 2015 season, switched teams this season via free agent signing, and hasn't been waived since. (Apologies to Anthony Bennett, but there was enough work to be done there.)
The logic there being, that free agency is kind of a "free money" scenario when it comes to asset grabbing. Money, while very real to owners, is sort of an effervescent idea when it comes to the actual assets of the team. What I mean is, free agency is basically the only way besides the draft to acquire players without giving something up. That makes it inherently valuable. It's always preferrable to do your work in free agency because draft assets are hypothetically a finite thing. Every team technically should only have two each year. If you are acquiring those draft assets you are probably giving something up.
It's sort of a "no duh" thing, but nailing your free agency signings with your cap space can really change a teams fortunes.
The Celtics found themselves in a funky situation last off-season. There was surprise playoff berth on the back of Danny finally moving out of the asset building phase and moving into the "winning" phase. That team probably still shouldn't have mad the playoffs, but Brad Stevens and a weak East makes weird things happen. They found themselves with Isaiah Thomas, and a bunch of "good not great" players. (Let's again appreciate that Jae Crowder got paid and got BETTER. That's pretty rare.) The Celtics let Brandon Bass walk and brought in David Lee for cap reasons and because even he was more valuable than dead Gerald Wallace.
In the year and a half of "rebuilding" Olynyk and Sullinger were clearly the stars of the show from a stats perspective, only exclipsed when ET arrived, so I was skeptical to look to for help in the front court when things seemed to be more thin on the wing, particularly when taking into consideration the way both Crowder and Jerebko thrive at the 4.
When Kevin Love when back to Cleveland, the Celtics ended up in another "kick the can" down the road situation, with no pressing needs on cap space. The difficulty was, that given how exceedingly competent everyone was, "average" free agents weren't going to move the needle. Spending money on those players was just going to be a sunk cost. The Celtics "need a star" because they had hit a point where there was no room for improvement with roster spots.
That is, they Celtics couldn't simply add average player to the pile because they wouldn't get playing time and thus, that value wouldn't compound. They needed someone who would be BETTER.
Enter Amir Johnson's flexible "$12M now, maybe $12M later" deal. As you'll see from some numbers on the table later, Amir has been well worth what I many considered an overpay. Remarkably, I would bet that if the Celtics waive Amir to go Durant hunting he will get something HIGHER than that $12M on the open market. Amir came in and has not only outplayed Kelly and Sullinger COMFORTABLY from an analytics perspective (something I didn't think he could do given their roles as the Celtics best incumbent players), he added value at a position that was a veritable log jam not only on the team, but in the NBA.
Unfortunately for me, but good for everyone else, CelticsBlog ran a piece the night before last detailing this exact thing. I saw this today, when finishing my data entry, and so I recommend reading that as well. So, uh, I'm here to just vomit out the numbers I found and go quietly back into the night. Think of this as kind of the numbers version backing up the prose of that piece. I guess giving Amir props is what's hot in the streets right now.
I recommend getting RES so you can sore data in and look at the various the table.
| Player | Age | AAV | WS | BPM | RPM | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Johnson | 28 | $12M | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2.36 | 2.1 |
| Jeremy Lin | 27 | $2.1M | 3.2 | -1.3 | -0.98 | 0.3 |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 30 | $1.186 | 0.8 | -2.9 | -0.79 | -0.1 |
| Justin Holiday | 26 | $0.9815M | -0.1 | -5.1 | -3.53 | -0.2 |
| Andrea Bargnani | 30 | $1.3 | 0.2 | -7.8 | N/A | -0.9 |
| Wayne Ellington | 28 | $1.211M | 0.9 | -3.3 | -3.75 | -0.5 |
| Shane Larkin | 23 | $1.5M | 1.4 | -2.3 | -2.81 | -0.1 |
| Thomas Robinson | 24 | $1.016M | 0.5 | -2.9 | -3.46 | -0.2 |
| Donald Sloan | 28 | $1.015M | 1.8 | -2.2 | -1.43 | 0.0 |
| Richard Jefferson | 35 | $1.499M | 2.6 | -0.6 | -1.96 | 0.4 |
| Mo Williams | 33 | $2.15M | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.96 | -0.2 |
| Jeremy Evans | 28 | $1.116M | 0.6 | -2.6 | -1.84 | 0.0 |
| Deron Williams | 31 | $5.47M | 3.4 | -0.2 | 0.13 | 0.9 |
| Wesley Matthews | 29 | $17.515M | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.45 | 1.6 |
| John Jenkins | 25 | $1.07M | 0.2 | -5.2 | -3.32 | -0.3 |
| Mike Miller | 36 | $2.854M | 0.2 | -3.0 | -1.91 | -0.1 |
| Aron Baynes | 29 | $6.5M | 3.6 | -0.1 | 0.26 | 0.6 |
| Ian Clark | 25 | $.947M | 0.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -0.1 |
| Marcus Thornton | 28 | $1.186M | 1.4 | -2.3 | -2.49 | -0.1 |
| Monta Ellis | 30 | $11M | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.62 | 1.5 |
| Jordan Hill | 28 | $4M | 3.9 | -0.7 | 0.05 | 0.5 |
| Glenn Robinson | 22 | $.9586M | 0.8 | -3.0 | -2.58 | -0.1 |
| Cole Aldrich | 27 | $1.136M | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.23 | 1.0 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | 29 | $1.270M | 1.4 | -1.8 | -1.89 | 0.1 |
| Wesley Johnson | 28 | $1.270M | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 1.0 |
| Paul Pierce | 38 | $3.53M | 0.7 | -2.8 | -2.66 | -0.2 |
| Pablo Prigioni | 38 | $.981M | 1.3 | 0.6 | -0.93 | 0.5 |
| Josh Smith | 30 | $.947 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -2.54 | -0.1 |
| Brandon Bass | 30 | $3M | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 1.0 |
| Lou Williams | 29 | $7M | 4.7 | 0.3 | -2.16 | 1.1 |
| Brandan Wright | 28 | $5.73M | 0.7 | 0.9 | -2.19 | 0.2 |
| Amare Stoudemire | 33 | $1.55M | 2.2 | -0.3 | 1.16 | 0.3 |
| Gerald Green | 30 | $1.356M | 1.5 | -3.1 | -2.97 | -0.4 |
| Chris Copeland | 32 | $1.1M | -0.1 | -7.7 | N/A | -0.2 |
| Greg Monroe | 25 | $17.1M | 7.2 | 1.3 | 1.88 | 1.9 |
| Tayshaun Prince | 36 | $1.5M | 0.4 | -3.1 | -4.14 | -0.4 |
| Andre Miller | 40 | $1.5M | 0.9 | -3.2 | -0.94 | -0.1 |
| Alonzo Gee | 28 | $1.375M | 2.0 | -0.7 | -1.99 | 0.5 |
| Kendrick Perkins | 31 | $1.5M | 0.3 | -3.2 | -1.09 | -0.1 |
| Arron Afflalo | 30 | $8M | 2.6 | -2.3 | -2.51 | -0.2 |
| Robin Lopez | 28 | $13.75M | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.17 | 1.8 |
| Jason Smith | 30 | $4.3M | 1.7 | -2.8 | -1.73 | -0.2 |
| CJ Watson | 31 | $5M | 0.5 | -3.6 | -3.38 | -0.2 |
| Tyson Chandler | 33 | $13M | 3.3 | -0.9 | -0.28 | 0.4 |
| Mirza Teletovic | 30 | $5.5M | 3.4 | -0.7 | -1.01 | 0.5 |
| Ronnie Price | 32 | $1.5M | 1.3 | -0.8 | -0.04 | 0.3 |
| Al Farouq Aminu | 25 | $7.5M | 3.7 | 0.1 | 1.21 | 1.2 |
| Ed Davis | 26 | $7M | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.66 | 2.2 |
| Quincy Acy | 25 | $1.01M | 2.3 | 0.3 | -1.08 | 0.5 |
| Marco Belinelli | 30 | $6.333M | 0.5 | -4.1 | -5.49 | -0.9 |
| Caron Butler | 36 | $1.5M | 0.3 | -2.3 | -2.12 | 0.0 |
| Kosta Koufos | 27 | $8.25M | 3.2 | -1.2 | -2.06 | 0.3 |
| Rajon Rondo | 30 | $9.5M | 4.6 | 1.1 | -0.19 | 2.0 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 30 | $21.025M | 10.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| David West | 35 | $1.5M | 5.0 | 3.3 | 2.92 | 1.7 |
| Bismack Biyombo | 23 | $3M | 5.5 | -0.2 | 0.36 | 0.8 |
| Demarre Carroll | 29 | $14.5M | 1.0 | -0.2 | -0.91 | 0.3 |
| Cory Joseph | 24 | $7.5M | 3.2 | -1.1 | -0.81 | 0.5 |
| Luis Scola | 35 | $3M | 3.3- | 1.1 | -0.68 | 0.4 |
| Jeff Withey | 26 | $.981 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.60 | 0.6 |
| Alan Anderson | 33 | $4M | 0.4 | -1.2 | -0.29 | 0.0 |
TL;DR
You can't ask for much more out of the Amir Johnson signing, as his contract is now under-value, has flexibility and has contributed to the Celtics' home court push. Chalk up another one to the Danny Ainge Win Streak.
Submitted April 06, 2016 at 04:33PM by shnts07