RES RECOMMENDED
Another regular season come and gone, and while the Celtics were able to pound their Vegas over-under into the dirt, it failed to generate much playoff luck with regards to seeding. The Hawks were the Celtics strongest possible opponent with regards to point differential (Atlanta was 3rd in the East, 7th in the NBA) and head to head record (the Hawks are 3-1 against the Celtics this year), so of course that’s who the Celtics will see in round 1. The Celtics have the dubious honor of being the first team on the outside of home court advantage and will need to win in Atlanta to get a likely rematch with Cleveland in Round 2.
In a way, this series should be a lot of fun as these teams are, in a lot of ways, mirror images of each other. Neither team rebounds the ball particularly well (a side effect of playing with smaller, floor-stretching bigs), but both are in the top 10 in the NBA in assist rate, turnover to assist ratio,turnover differential, and pace. Additionally both are in the top 11 in 3PA and both are top 4 in defensive efficiency.
Neither of these teams are bangers. These are well-coached pace-and-space teams that move the ball well and try to beat you up the floor. There are a couple of key differences, though, and I’d like to get into some of those here in part one, because they are going to determine what the two teams are going to try to take away from one another.
Hawks’ Eye View
A good place to begin evaluating yourself as a team for a series-long chess match against another coach is to simply think about what you would do against yourself. For this exercise, I’m going to pretend to be Coach Bud figuring out what my plan should be against this Celtics squad. Here are the facts I know.
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Both teams are elite defensively with little to no shot blocking.
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I have the best player in this series in Paul Millsap, but Isaiah Thomas is close.
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My team is a top 7 squad in TS% despite league average 3P% and being 29th in FTr.
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My opponent is 4th best in the NBA at defending the 3 point line while we are 7tth.
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My opponent is 27th in 3 point percentage.
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My opponent has three players with above average USG%.
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Isaiah Thomas’s USG% is 14% higher than the next closest rotation player’s.
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My opponent is a bottom 5 team in two point percentage outside of 3 feet.
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My opponent is Top 5 in points in transition.
So when I take a look at all of that, I have one goal that I think will help us win this game.
Stop Isaiah Thomas by stacking the paint.
The Celtics are 7-9 when IT shoots under 33% and three of those losses are against, you guessed it, the Atlanta Hawks. On this play, Watch how all the Hawks sag off the rest of the starters in order to put a foot in the paint. That’s not an accident. That’s how Bud has them coached. There’s a reason that three of Isaiah’s worst games this year are against the Hawks.
The hawks aren’t going to be afraid to bring help from the sides in order to take away the paint. Watch Bazemore cut Bradley loose to help Teague in the paint only to rotate back to Bradley to force another kick. There are going to be times when the Hawks won’t be able to get back on that open shooter if they take away the paint. The Celtics are going to need to punish the Hawks in those situations, whether its Smart, corner afficienado Turner, Crowder, Bradley or one of the bigs hitting that shot. If the Hawks are going to take away the restricted area, the only way the Celtics will survive is if they can be a better 3-point shooting team than they were in the regular season. In that clip, Thomas gets the defense to collapse twice and both times Bradley is free in the corner, but the Celtics can’t make anything out of it.
This isn’t conjecture. It’s how the Celtics four games against the Hawks have gone. If you take a look at the team’s shot charts against one another, you can see that the major difference between the two is the Hawks shooting 13% better in the restricted area. This is important because the Celtics are a bottom five shooting team when it comes to shots outside of 3 feet. If the Hawks are going to take away the restricted area the Celtics HAVE to make their 3s.
If I’m coach Bud, making the 27th ranked 3P% team live and die by the three is where I want to start.
Switch Don’t Ice; Over Not Under picks
The Celtics are a top 4 defensive unit because they communicate well, play good positional defense, and defend the 3 point line. Part of the reason the Celtics are such a bad matchup for Golden State is their exceptional defensive guard play and making sure not to lose shooters in transition. This Hawks team is a worse 3 point shooting team but is very different in one super important way.
All of their bigs can shoot. That makes things really rough if you want to ice PNRs or go under screens.
The Celtics iced a fair bit when their guards got beat on screens in the regular season. On this play Turner gets caught on the screen and Lee ices, containing the ball handler. They don’t switch however, and Turner comes back to the ball handler while Horford pops out. If this is truly how the Celtics want to do this, Olynyk and the rest of the defense need to rotate over to force extra passes. This means Olynyk over to horford, RJ Hunter over to Mike Scott and so on and so forth until Lee or Turner has time to get to the weakside man. None of that happens, and instead Olynyk weakly shows a bit and Horford cans the 3.
This play is the other side of that coin. The same thing happens here, only this time, Horford rolls to the rim. Turner is behind the play, so Amir comes in from the weakside to help Lee. Whether or not he should have helped here is something I’m not sure about, and a philosophical choice that Brad will have to make. Horford is a good enough passer to find the open man, who again, nails the 3.
Here is a similar play, where Smart gets wrong footed, but Jae is there with the help defense. However, Amir panicked and also came to help, leaving his shooter in the corner even though the Celtics had two men at the rim. Horford is coming in to clean, but Amir isn’t putting a body on him either. Again, this leads to an open 3.
Another “weakside help issue” play, Avery get caught behind the play and Olynyk ices. When Horford pop, KO calls out the switch and Bradely picks up Horford, however, he gets caught ball-watching a bit and has trouble getting turned around when they lob to Horford. Amir comes to help (I think rightly this time) and yet again, his man pops for a 3.
The theme of playing the Hawks is that all of their players can shoot the three, so you can’t leave any of them alone. Make a mistake and the open guy will shoot the ball. They shoot a league average percentage, but the fact that everyone is a threat creates a lot of spacing. The Hawks don’t have a Smart, Turner, or Sullinger that you can cheat off of to help in the paint. For that reason, it’s important to stay home. Even possibly at the expense of cross matches in transition.
Nowhere is that more important than when you are guarding Korver.
If the Hawks set a screen for him coming back to the ball, you have to switch it or you are dead. Bradley can’t get over the screen and Jae doesn’t switch, so Boom goes the dynamite.
Lose Korver on an inbounds play like IT does here? Dead.
Even something as simple as going under a screen can cost you against the Hawks.
Again, even something as simple as really really unnecessarily going under a screen can cost you agains the Hawks.
TL;DR
I’m guessing the Hawks will defend the Celtics by taking away the restricted area and giving the Celtics jump shots. The C’s will need to make their open threes while switching in order to not give their opponent the same. Creating extra possessions through rebounding and turnover and getting points in transition and at the line will be critical against the Hawks #2 overall defense.
Submitted April 14, 2016 at 05:11PM by shnts07