Hey all its "The Path" here to bring you an in - depth analysis of why Drummond is the immediate and long-term future for the C's.
So let me start by saying there has been a lot of hype with Drummond's RT of IT's tweet Thomas last used to indicate Horford was joining us. Drummond even tweeted a set of his own eyes later.
Why would Ainge want Drummond? I personally believe that Drummond will complement our core of Smart, Brown, Young, & BKN 2017/2018 1st to create a 5-10 year title contending Celtics dynasty. I will start by analyzing stats, then discuss possible trades, and finally close with how he will mesh with our young core & aging veterans.
Let's look at Drummond's stats:
A 23 year old center playing for the Detroit Pistons. At 6-11, 279 lbs, the "Big Penguin" (lol) is a true monster center, competing with the likes of Whiteside, Howard, & Embiid as the best center in the Eastern Conference. He is a black hole at rebounding, with the highest total number of rebounds so far of any center at 773, 40 ahead of Whiteside, 100 ahead of KAT, & 110 ahead of Howard. He is 1st in offensive rebounds at 229 while 3rd in defensive rebounds (only behind DJ by 30 and Whiteside by 3). His ability to perform at the glass on both ends of the court makes him an absolutely stellar rim protector & offensive 2nd chance point generator. He started his career at 19 and has posted consistent stats through his tenure with the NBA:
Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2012-13 19 60 10 20.7 3.5 5.7 .608 0.0 0.0 .500 3.5 5.7 .609 .610 1.0 2.7 .371 2.8 4.8 7.6 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.0 2.4 7.9
2013-14 20 81 81 32.3 5.9 9.5 .623 0.0 0.0 .000 5.9 9.5 .625 .623 1.7 4.0 .418 5.4 7.8 13.2 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.4 3.4 13.5
2014-15 21 82 82 30.5 6.0 11.7 .514 0.0 0.0 .000 6.0 11.7 .515 .514 1.7 4.5 .389 5.3 8.1 13.5 0.7 0.9 1.9 1.5 3.5 13.8
2015-16 22 81 81 32.9 6.8 13.1 .521 0.0 0.1 .333 6.8 13.0 .522 .522 2.6 7.2 .355 4.9 9.9 14.8 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 3.0 16.2
2016-17 23 56 56 30.4 6.3 12.0 .527 0.0 0.1 .333 6.3 11.9 .529 .529 1.9 4.4 .439 4.1 9.7 13.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.9 14.6
We see a constant performance across the seasons in the rebounding & pts department. He is also showing a small increase in proficiency at the line & is recording more steals. Time to dissect his 2016-17 season. Games that are particularly notable are bolded. Going chronologically:
10/26 vs TOR, 24 min, 16 pts, 64.6%FG, 6 Reb, 5 PF
10/28 vs ORL, 28 min, 12 pts, 35.7%FG, 20 Reb
10/30 vs MIL, 37 min, 20 pts, 50%FG, 23 Reb
11/1 vs NYK, 35 min, 9 pts, 30.8%FG, 13 Reb
11/2 vs BKN, 25 min, 6 pts, 33.3%FG, 6 Reb
11/5 vs DEN, 34 min, 19 pts, 54.5%FG, 19 Reb
11/7 vs LAC, 25 min, 15 pts, 60%FG, 12 Reb
11/9 vs PHX, 35 min, 18 pts, 53.8%FG, 14 Reb
11/11 vs SAS, 33 min, 20 pts, 80%FG, 17 Reb
11/12 vs DEN, 27 min, 14 pts, 63.6%FG, 12 Reb
11/14 vs OKC, DNP
11/16 vs NYK, 29 min, 15 pts, 53.8%FG, 9 Reb
11/18 vs CLE, 27 min, 8 pts, 33.3%FG, 10 Reb
11/19 vs BOS, 31 min, 20 pts, 56.3%FG, 17 Reb
11/21 vs HOU, 34 min, 13 pts, 33.3%FG, 16 Reb
11/23 vs MIA, 26 min, 18 pts, 75%FG, 15 Reb
11/25 vs LAC, 26 min, 16 pts, 72.7%FG, 10 Reb
11/26 vs OKC, 36 min, 10 pts, 50%FG, 8 Reb
11/29 vs CHA, 13 min, 3 pts, 16.7%FG, 6 Reb
11/30 vs BOS, 35 min, 20 pts, 61.5%FG, 17 Reb
12/2 vs ATL, 28 min, 14 pts, 66.7%FG, 14 Reb
12/4 vs ORL, 35 min, 10 pts, 45.5%FG, 10 Reb
12/6 vs CHI, 25 min, 15 pts, 53.8%FG, 10 Reb
12/7 vs CHA, 34 min, 26 pts, 78.6%FG, 20 Reb
12/9 vs MIN, 28 min, 22 pts, 76.9%FG, 22 Reb
12/11 vs PHI, 36 min, 14 pts, 42.9%FG, 14 Reb
12/14 vs DAL, 27 min, 3 pts, 33.3%FG, 16 Reb
12/16 vs WSH, 30 min, 13 pts, 71.4%FG, 12 Reb
12/17 vs IND, 35 min, 9 pts, 36.4%FG, 15 Reb
12/19 vs CHI, 23 min, 9 pts, 50%FG, 4 Reb
12/21 vs MEM, 38 min, 13 pts, 37.5%FG, 19 Reb
12/23 vs GSW, 30 min, 15 pts, 85.7%FG, 9 Reb
12/26 vs CLE, 28 min, 11 pts, 53.3%FG, 17 Reb
12/28 vs MIL, 26 min, 16 pts, 53.8%FG, 9 Reb
12/30 vs ATL, 35 min, 15 pts, 41.7%FG, 15 Reb
01/01 vs MIA, 36 min, 25 pts, 63.2%FG, 18 Reb
01/03 vs IND, 35 min, 20 pts, 56.3%FG, 14 Reb
01/05 vs CHA, 25 min, 16 pts, 46.7%FG, 8 Reb
01/08 vs POR, 52 min, 28 pts, 65%FG, 14 Reb
01/10 vs SAC, 35 min, 9 pts, 80%FG, 12 Reb
01/12 vs GSW, 27 min, 12 pts, 83%FG, 10 Reb
01/13 vs UTA, 33 min, 9 pts, 57.1%FG, 19 Reb
01/15 vs LAL, 32 min, 15 pts, 35.3%FG, 17 Reb
01/18 vs ATL, 23 min, 13 pts, 40%FG, 17 Reb
01/21 vs WSH, 18 min, 3 pts, 50%FG, 10 Reb
01/23 vs SAC, 35 min, 14 pts, 54.5%FG, 12 Reb
01/28 vs MIA, 35 min, 17 pts, 53.3%FG, 21 Reb
01/30 vs BOS, 41 min, 28 pts, 63.2%FG, 22 Reb
02/01 vs NOP, 26 min, 17 pts, 61.5%FG, 6 Reb
02/03 vs MIN, 29 min, 12 pts, 42.9%FG, 18 Reb
02/04 vs IND, 31 min, 13 pts, 62.5%FG, 9 Reb
02/06 vs PHI, 26 min, 16 pts, 57.1%FG, 17 Reb
02/08 vs LAL, 28 min, 24 pts, 63.2%FG, 17 Reb
02/10 vs SAS, 37 min, 12 pts, 29.4%FG, 15 Reb
02/12 vs TOR, 27 min, 10 pts, 30%FG, 18 Reb
02/13 vs MIL, 34 min, 21 pts, 50%FG, 12 Reb
02/15 vs DAL, 19 min, 9 pts, 50%FG, 11 Reb
Drummond has shown some problems with concentration, occasionally shooting <35%FG. However, he has shown incredible rebounding prowess against teams with great centers like KAT's Timberwolves, Whiteside's Heat, DMC's (former) Kings, Howard's Hawks, LA Lakers, DJ's Clippers, Valanciunas' Raptors, & Embiid's 76ers. He has shown poor performances against AD's Pelicans and McGee/Pachulia's GSW. Teams have somewhat eased on the "Hack-a-Drummond" strategy as he has increased his FT% 8.5% since last season.
PHEW that was a lot of stats! Now we go into trade talks. I personally think the Pistons front office was very disappointed with their showing this season. Struggling to hold 8th place, the Pistons have had an up and down season, with Van Gundy radically changing the Piston's play style a quarter of the way through the season (notably after our 1st head to head with DET). The Pistons changed from low PnRs to a heavy emphasis on perimeter shooting, which has in turn lowered Drummond's role with Detroit. The DET front office has said it is actively shopping Drummond and Reggie Jackson, most likely in an attempt to rebuild around Caldwell-Pope & Morris/Harris. After 5 seasons with the Pistons, DET must have realized they can no longer grow with the young center who has seemingly reached his "team" ceiling.
I propose the following set of trades to accommodate the young center who has no foreseeable individual ceiling & is sporting a very affordable contract:
AB+Crowder+late 1st rounder for Drummond & Morris
Young+AB+late 1st rounder for Drummond
Johnson+Zeller+Rozier+early 2nd rounder for Drummond
What are your thoughts on fair trades for Drummond? I truly think they will ask for AB in the trade which is extremely worth for us as we are already extremely guard heavy and have displayed prowess on both ends of the court despite AB's absence.
Next we move onto the most exciting and final section: how well Drummond fits as a piece for the future building of the C's dynasty. I suspect we will build around our young core with Smart and Fultz or Ball or Jackson taking the helm, Brown & Young as SG/SF flex, & Drummond as our anchor. We will have an aging IT & Horford who will both be viable 2nd string veterans with players like KO & Rozier (if neither are traded which is unlikely) to give the C's bench a change of pace when things are slow on the court. I assume Zizic (& maybe even Yabu) will play his role as a strong, agile, above average 2nd string PF/Center flex. If we are lucky, players like Nader will find their way into the 2nd string as strong SF/PF flexers.
So why is Drummond such a great fit with Smart, BKN 2017/2018 1st, Brown, & Young? Drummond is a player with no forseeable offensive ceiling. Despite his slowness & defensive woes, Drummond has a vast drive to improve. He is constantly putting up 15+ pts with amazing defensive board capability. With Smart's PnR & court vision, I imagine Drummond to play a very DeAndre Jordan-esque ball game (here's Drummond's shot chart), especially since Smart is reminiscent of a buffer Chris Paul with similar prowess on both ends of the court. With 3 guaranteed strong, tough-willed players on our 1st string (Smart, Drummond, Brown), the C's will usher in a new Era of the big 3. These 3 will move the ball with ease and draw as many fouls as Harden (but with the actual contact). If Drummond slims down a bit & Brown buffs up by 1.5x, we are in for at least a 5 year prime time title window that possibly extends to a jaw - dropping 10 years.
But enough with the speculation. That's something we will see plenty in the years to come. Why do we want Drummond now?
With a appealing set contract, Drummond offers the quickest, long-term solution to our rebounding woes. DMC was frankly not going to be a realistic goal for the C's as Ainge was not interested in a 1.5 year player rental. Whiteside offers a similar skillset with stronger defense & an offense not limited to alley-oops but I believe the Heat will have a high asking price for the well-versed center. Some may point to Drummond's atrocious FT%. It is true that come playoffs, Drummond will be a liability; however, I trust Brad & the coaches enough to at least shape Drummond into a 60+% shooter, with the possibility of seeing our first underhanded shooter haha.
In the first round of playoffs, Drummond will serve as insurance, preventing black horse teams like the Heat & 76ers to cause upsets through rebounding. In the second round, he will serve as a defensive anchor, helping us outrebound JV & the Raptors or Howard & the Hawks. Both teams alongside the Pacers & Bulls are high volume shooting teams. We must have a proficient defensive rebounder to even have hopes of facing the Cavs.
Ah, now time for the seemingly uncontested 1 seed title defending Cavaliers. They are perhaps the team that will suffer most at the hands of a Celtics Drummond. Why? Besides Love's injury, the Cavaliers are one of the few elite teams to have a lack of depth at the PF/Center position. Love is officially listed as a PF but flexes much more often to the center while TT is forced to play with the 2nd string due to his inability to perform well on offense. Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, & even the Raptors have good tertiary PF/Center flex options that ensure their paint discourages teams from drives & rebounds. If we insert Drummond into the equation in the likely ECF face off between the two C's, Drummond will have a field day boxing out the aging injury - ridden Love on both ends of the glass. With 2 inches & nearly 50 lbs on TT, Drummond can easily crush the Cavaliers' hopes in acquiring 2nd chance points. We will retain good perimeter shooters post trade and will even have the option of PnRs with 2 bigs always on the floor. A IT/smart/Rozier alley-oop to Drummond will be devastating as each of these guards has adequate ability to finish at every part of the court. The true threat of our 3 guard lineup (assuming we lose AB) shines with the option to roll with Drummond & KO as it maintains adequate spacing for kickout wide open 3s. Even if we substitute Rozier for Crowder, we will have a great perimeter shooter and driver that can sneak good paint passes for the Drummond dunk +1. Overall, I believe Drummond is a necessary piece in ensuring our face off with the Cavs and the subsequent destruction of their front court to climb to EC champions.
Finally, we have the discussion about title contention. Unfortunately, Drummond has had weak showings against the Warriors & Spurs, presumably due to the teams' proficiency in generating off-ball looks by screening and driving on slow bigs like Drummond.
Herein lies our problem. Players like KO & Jerebko may offer good 2nd string options to ensure we match speeds; however, a first string lineup of Horford & Drummond will get us absolutely DEMOLISHED, no question. Both centers are too slow to step out onto the perimeter to contest fast releasers like Curry, Thompson, Harden, Leonard, & Mills. I may even go as far as to say Drummond will hurt us in our attempts to win the title. So, what do we have to change about our game plan in order to adjust?
The obvious answer is that IT, Smart, Crowder & Brown have to step up their perimeter defense. IT in particular will suffer at the hands of on and off-ball screens of Kerr. Whether this comes in the form of IT sacrificing offense or in Smart's play directing, the C's will need to play at their absolute prime in order to force a series past Game 5. The less obvious answer is that we need to manage some atypical rotations. I may not be surprised if Green & Jerebko/KO see a lot of minutes in the finals games. With quick hands and good footwork, these 2nd string players may have to replace Horford, Johnson, Brown (due to inexperience) & Drummond. The Spurs will probably be a harder matchup as Leonard & Pop will expertly maneuver around Drummond while maintaining suffocating perimeter defense pressure as the C's rely heavily on 3s. I forsee no issues with facing the Rockets in the finals as without Harden on-court, they are a mediocre team with decent 3 pt shooting ability. Running Harden dry with Smart & Crowder (who did very well in suppressing Harden to a 6-18 shooting last head to head) will get us the title with relative ease.
In conclusion, I think Drummond is both the short-term and long-term answer for the Celtics to win a title and create a dynasty. With a brilliant coach, front court office, and deep future roster, the C's can really build a bright future while constantly nurturing prospects for 10+ years down the road. I don't think Drummond will cost us the valued BKN 2017 1st if we make an enticing, worthy offer of AB, late 1st rounder, and possibly Crowder (assuming we get 1 more outta DET). I also would not mind giving up the BKN 2018 1st as it's projected to be a center heavy draft. There is also uncertainty in BKN's position in the EC next year. We have Zizic coming in and with Horford, Drummond, & Zizic, we have a very good front court. In fact, this article (somewhat sensationalist) would have us listed with the #2 & #6 best centers in the NBA. Granted, Horford has been underperforming but he still has an immeasurable impact in comparison to the 2015-16 Celtics. Not many teams can boast having 2 of the top 10 players in a specific position.
So, r/bostonceltics, thoughts?
goCs
Submitted February 22, 2017 at 06:45AM by Noanswer_merelyapath