For the majority of this season, the sub (myself included) has been holding out for a trade to take us to the next level. This has led to a lot of discussion of potential deals and moves that the Celtics could make, and I think that a lot of us are getting carried away with what we think we can get for players and what a fair deal entails. In the past week alone, I've seen "I don't know if I would do Crowder for Love straight up," "he's old and on a big contract" (in reference to Smart + mid-late firsts for CP3), and a proposed trade of Sullinger, David Lee, and some mid-first rounders for Kevin Love.
Let's take a look at some past blockbuster trades as precedent for what our guys are really worth:
Love to Cleveland, Summer 2014:
Min Receives: Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, Thaddeus Young, $6.3 million trade exception
Cleveland Receives: Kevin Love
Philadelphia Receives: Alexey Shved, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
The circumstances surrounding this trade were interesting, as LeBron had returned to Cleveland that summer and the Cavs organization as a whole was changing rapidly. Love had just one year left on his contract, and was hell-bent on leaving Minnesota one way or another. This seemingly didn't matter in trade talks, however, as Love (who many considered, at the time, to be a top-15, perhaps top-10 player) commanded the first overall pick in that year's draft, as well as a quality veteran, and Anthony Bennett, who many believed still had a fair amount of promise.
Jrue Holiday to the Pelicans, draft nigh 2013:
Pelicans Receive: Jrue Holiday, Sixers' second-round pick (#42)
Sixers Receive: Nerlens Noel (#6 pick overall), Pelicans' top-5 protected 2014 first-rounder
At the time of the trade, Holiday was fresh off an All-Star season as a 23-year-old. A lot of people skewered the Sixers for giving up a guy with so much potential, but the return seemed pretty good considering many had predicted Nerlens to be the top pick in the draft and that it seemed as though the Pels would be back in the lottery the following year. Holiday was also a borderline All-Star, putting up solid numbers on a middling team, similar to what Kemba Walker is doing this year. Still, Holiday commanded a guy who could easily have been a #1 pick and what was likely to be a lottery pick the next season, a pretty sizable haul.
MCW to Milwaukee, Brandon Knight to Phoenix, Lakers' pick to Philly, Trade Deadline 2015:
Suns Received: Brandon Knight, Kendall Marshall
Bucks Received: MCW, Miles Plumlee, Tyler Ennis
Sixers Received: LAL First-Rounder (Top 5 protected 2015, Top 3 protected 2016, Unprotected 2017)
This was the biggest trade-deadline deal of last season, and ended up coinciding with another deal Phoenix made that sent IT4 to Boston (god bless). In this trade, Milwaukee moved the more experienced and older Brandon Knight (who had been playing at a near All-Star level) for the reigning ROTY, who Kidd seemed to believe has a higher ceiling. MCW hasn't had a huge impact in Milwaukee, but Knight has also been exposed with Bledsoe out for the season. Philly, meanwhile, took the Lakers' pick, which will land them a first-rounder in one of the next two drafts.
So, what does this mean for our assets?
Takeaways:
-It's really hard to get a star player: Having an established top-25 player in the NBA is rare, and that's what FOs value over everything. Even in the case of Kevin Love, where he was clearly going to walk and had all the leverage, Minny was able to get more than the top overall pick in that year's draft for him. This leads me into my second point, which is:
-Draft picks aren't as valuable as we think they are. Picks like Brooklyn's are good trade chips, but GMs understand that the draft is a gamble. Particularly before the lottery, we aren't going to be able to get the value everyone has been projecting for the Brooklyn pick, since it could conceivably fall as low as #7. Nothing in the draft is a sure thing, so it takes more than just draft picks to get a guy with a solid NBA resume.
-Prospects and picks are good for trading for other prospects and picks, but it takes a package, like the Love deal or the Holiday deal to land an All-Star. Our guys are young and some of them might have a good ceiling, but it's one thing to look like you could be an All-Star, and another to have that on your resume.
TL;DR: Temper expectations about our guys' trade values. Stars don't grow on trees, and GMs know that. If we want one, we're going to need to be willing to move a combination of the Brooklyn picks and our young players/prospects (Smart/Bradley/Sully/Olynyk) to be in the running.
Submitted January 24, 2016 at 05:26PM by Ifuckinglovebball