I think this discussion is interesting because there's no clearcut hierarchy of SGs after the first 4 or so. It seems like you could make a case for a few different guys at #5.
Disclaimer: I haven't watched all these guys equally, so this is going to be a mixture of eye test observations and vomited out advanced stats just to create points of discussion.
-Is Dwyane Wade #5? He's been reasonably healthy this season and he's putting up points. The Heat have been a very good team as well. However, how deep does Wade's impact go this year? He's passing the ball and rebounding it very well. He's still hitting the deep 2 very reliably and finishing well at the rim. His TS% is a rather pedestrian 52.0, in large part because he's not shooting the 3-ball well. He's also using the ball a lot - 31.0%, which is VERY high at this point in his career. It's also important to note that while Miami's ORtg is 104.5, it's 105.1 when Wade sits. His box score stats are in line with that of an All-Star, but a lot of the impact stats tell a different story. Does this jive with what is happening on the court? Does the offense flow better with different lineups that don't include Wade?
-Is Nicolas Batum #5? He's #4 among SGs in real plus-minus thanks to his very sound defense and his offensive versatility. I have to admit, I was a little down on him coming into the season, and he's forced me to eat crow. He's averaging 16/7/5 on a very good 56.1 TS% and running the offense well on a good Hornets team on the year. He has also sported really good shot selection, making the 3-ball a large part of his offense. Lately, he's been slumping hard from 3 and the Hornets haven't been doing so hot. Nevertheless it's been a career year for him and he does things no other player at the position does with his playmaking.
-Is Khris Middleton #5? He's the sole consistent shooter and off-ball option the woeful Bucks have. The team's Ortg drops by 10 whole points when Middleton sits - there's noise there because the Bucks have a dearth of spacing without him, but it's clear he has a huge impact on their fortunes nonetheless. In addition to his floor-spacing he's sporting a very impressive 3.7 assist to 1.7 turnover rate.
Statistically, Batum and Middleton have a ton on common. Middleton is one spot below Batum in terms of real plus-minus featuring a higher ORPM and a lower DRPM. In terms of scoring output they're virtually identical - PPG, per 36, per 100 possessions, you name it, and Middleton's TS% is but 0.9 higher. What's interesting is their distribution of shots. Middleton is shooting 46.1% from 3, 5th in the league. His FG% is also higher at 43.3% to Batum's 42.5%. However, Middleton has been taking and missing 2-pointers at a way higher rate which brings his efficiency down. And while Batum only shoots a respectable 37.0% from 3, 3s comprise a higher percentage of his shots. Batum pulls down almost 3 more rebounds a game which cannot be understated.
-Is J.J. Redick #5? In terms of his pure shooting and scoring he absolutely trumps everyone I've already discussed. At 15.9 points per game in only 27 minutes, he's scoring at an elite (3rd in the NBA) 64.1 TS%. He's 2nd in 3P% and he's shooting 48.5% from the field. These numbers speak for themselves, Redick is one of the best shooters in the NBA. On the other hand, he remains undersized and a defensive liability against a lot of wings. He only pulls down 2.1 rebounds per 36, and he only assists 2.1 times per 36 a game (which I know Paul's ball-dominance plays a part in).
Where does C.J. McCollum figure in? He's scoring more than most of these guys, albeit on less efficient shooting.
Where does Manu Ginobili figure in? Per minute he's producing like a top 5 shooting guard, but he's onlt playing 19 minutes a game.
Let me know your thoughts. At any rate the SG discussion is a lot more interesting now than it has been in years past.
Submitted January 03, 2016 at 12:53PM by thisishorsepoop